A contentious and bitter battle for the White House lies ahead in Investors might want to ignore it. Excluding , presidential election years going back to have seen an average return of 9.

How Do Stocks Perform During the Presidential Election Cycle? | Charles Schwab

Stovall, in a Dec. Presidential election years have seen small caps rise Overall, the election-year data is encouraging, he said.

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Not everyone is so sanguine. In his outlook, Belski took the data back to In other words, presidential election years have been pretty average. In , of course, voters must select a new president to replace Barack Obama, who is set to complete his second term. Belski notes, however, that will mark the first election where an outgoing Democratic president has had a Republican-controlled Congress.

At the same time, however, market performance has actually tended to be stronger when the unemployment rate and inflation are above average in the third year of the election cycle see charts below. So in the end, how stocks perform in an election year might have less to do with the candidates than the economic backdrop that will frame the battle.

William Watts is MarketWatch's deputy markets editor, based in New York. Follow him on Twitter wlwatts. By using this site you agree to the Terms of Service , Privacy Policy , and Cookie Policy. Intraday Data provided by SIX Financial Information and subject to terms of use. Historical and current end-of-day data provided by SIX Financial Information.

predictions: What presidential election years mean for stocks - MarketWatch

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Corrected Oil finishes at a 9-month low, in bear-market territory. Crude oil losses accelerate, prices slide 0. European stocks fall, with energy shares lower after oil prices hit 9-month low.

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